How Accurate Are Our Walt Disney World Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
76%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
7 min
Average Error
90
Days Analyzed
4621
Ride Predictions Made
EPCOT
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
EPCOT
84%
6 min avg error
Magic Kingdom
83%
6 min avg error
Animal Kingdom
81%
6 min avg error
Hollywood Studios
58%
11 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 90 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hall of Presidents | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 58 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 60 |
| Tomorrowland Speedway | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 4 min | 61 |
| The Barnstormer | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 4 min | 61 |
| Walt Disney's Enchanted Tiki Room | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 59 |
| Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 59 |
| Country Bear Musical Jamboree | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 60 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 61 |
| Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 60 |
| Mad Tea Party | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 61 |
| Prince Charming Regal Carrousel | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 61 |
| Impressions de France | EPCOT | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| Mission: SPACE | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 90 |
| Turtle Talk With Crush | EPCOT | 100% | 1 min | 89 |
| Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 90 |
| Vacation Fun - An Original Animated Short with Mickey & Minnie | Hollywood Studios | 100% | 1 min | 70 |
| Beauty and the Beast Sing-Along | EPCOT | 100% | 3 min | 26 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! - NEW! | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 71 |
| Maharajah Jungle Trek | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 80 |
| Gorilla Falls Exploration Trail | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 79 |
| Enchanted Tales with Belle | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 16 |
| Swiss Family Treehouse | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 52 |
| Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360 | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 86 |
| Reflections of China | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 78 |
| Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 52 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 18 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Fantasyland | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 2 min | 57 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Main Street, U.S.A. | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 2 min | 57 |
| The Magic Carpets of Aladdin | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 4 min | 61 |
| Star Tours – The Adventures Continue | Hollywood Studios | 98% | 3 min | 82 |
| Astro Orbiter | Magic Kingdom | 97% | 4 min | 61 |
| "it's a small world" | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 5 min | 61 |
| Journey Into Imagination With Figment | EPCOT | 94% | 4 min | 89 |
| Living with the Land | EPCOT | 91% | 6 min | 90 |
| Wildlife Express Train | Animal Kingdom | 91% | 4 min | 45 |
| Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 89% | 6 min | 9 |
| Under the Sea - Journey of The Little Mermaid | Magic Kingdom | 88% | 6 min | 59 |
| The Seas with Nemo & Friends | EPCOT | 88% | 6 min | 90 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | Animal Kingdom | 87% | 5 min | 84 |
| Spaceship Earth | EPCOT | 84% | 6 min | 90 |
| Na'vi River Journey | Animal Kingdom | 80% | 7 min | 89 |
| Haunted Mansion | Magic Kingdom | 78% | 7 min | 60 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ | Hollywood Studios | 76% | 8 min | 21 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Magic Kingdom | 75% | 8 min | 60 |
| Soarin' Around the World | EPCOT | 75% | 7 min | 55 |
| Expedition Everest - Legend of the Forbidden Mountain | Animal Kingdom | 74% | 7 min | 89 |
| Kali River Rapids | Animal Kingdom | 72% | 9 min | 85 |
| Remy's Ratatouille Adventure | EPCOT | 66% | 10 min | 89 |
| Seven Dwarfs Mine Train | Magic Kingdom | 62% | 10 min | 61 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Magic Kingdom | 62% | 10 min | 61 |
| Alien Swirling Saucers | Hollywood Studios | 62% | 9 min | 82 |
| Soarin' Across America | EPCOT | 62% | 11 min | 26 |
| Space Mountain | Magic Kingdom | 61% | 10 min | 61 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind | EPCOT | 61% | 13 min | 90 |
| Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 60% | 9 min | 52 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Magic Kingdom | 58% | 10 min | 57 |
| Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith | Hollywood Studios | 57% | 11 min | 21 |
| Frozen Ever After | EPCOT | 55% | 11 min | 89 |
| Test Track | EPCOT | 54% | 12 min | 89 |
| Rock ’n’ Roller Coaster Starring The Muppets | Hollywood Studios | 54% | 17 min | 26 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Hollywood Studios | 52% | 12 min | 81 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Magic Kingdom | 49% | 11 min | 61 |
| Toy Story Mania! | Hollywood Studios | 49% | 12 min | 82 |
| The Twilight Zone™ Tower of Terror | Hollywood Studios | 46% | 14 min | 61 |
| Avatar Flight of Passage | Animal Kingdom | 45% | 15 min | 89 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Magic Kingdom | 44% | 13 min | 61 |
| TRON Lightcycle / Run | Magic Kingdom | 41% | 12 min | 61 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Hollywood Studios | 39% | 14 min | 82 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Hollywood Studios | 38% | 17 min | 82 |
| Slinky Dog Dash | Hollywood Studios | 37% | 16 min | 82 |
| Jungle Cruise | Magic Kingdom | 36% | 14 min | 61 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.