How Accurate Are Our Walt Disney World Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
71%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
9 min
Average Error
69
Days Analyzed
3185
Ride Predictions Made
Magic Kingdom
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
Magic Kingdom
82%
6 min avg error
EPCOT
80%
7 min avg error
Animal Kingdom
72%
9 min avg error
Hollywood Studios
53%
13 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 69 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacation Fun - An Original Animated Short with Mickey & Minnie | Hollywood Studios | 100% | 1 min | 56 |
| Impressions de France | EPCOT | 100% | 3 min | 22 |
| Turtle Talk With Crush | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 68 |
| Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360 | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 67 |
| Reflections of China | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 65 |
| Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 69 |
| Astro Orbiter | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 4 min | 37 |
| The Hall of Presidents | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 35 |
| The Barnstormer | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 5 min | 37 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 4 min | 37 |
| The Magic Carpets of Aladdin | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 5 min | 37 |
| Tomorrowland Speedway | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 4 min | 37 |
| Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 36 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 36 |
| Country Bear Musical Jamboree | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 36 |
| Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 37 |
| Mad Tea Party | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 37 |
| Walt Disney's Enchanted Tiki Room | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 35 |
| Prince Charming Regal Carrousel | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 37 |
| Swiss Family Treehouse | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 29 |
| Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 36 |
| Maharajah Jungle Trek | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 62 |
| Gorilla Falls Exploration Trail | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 61 |
| Enchanted Tales with Belle | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 10 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Fantasyland | Magic Kingdom | 97% | 3 min | 35 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Main Street, U.S.A. | Magic Kingdom | 97% | 2 min | 35 |
| "it's a small world" | Magic Kingdom | 97% | 6 min | 37 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! - NEW! | Animal Kingdom | 97% | 3 min | 68 |
| Star Tours – The Adventures Continue | Hollywood Studios | 94% | 4 min | 67 |
| Mission: SPACE | EPCOT | 94% | 3 min | 69 |
| Living with the Land | EPCOT | 91% | 6 min | 69 |
| Journey Into Imagination With Figment | EPCOT | 91% | 5 min | 68 |
| Under the Sea - Journey of The Little Mermaid | Magic Kingdom | 89% | 7 min | 35 |
| The Seas with Nemo & Friends | EPCOT | 86% | 6 min | 69 |
| Spaceship Earth | EPCOT | 80% | 6 min | 69 |
| Soarin' Across America | EPCOT | 78% | 7 min | 9 |
| Haunted Mansion | Magic Kingdom | 78% | 7 min | 36 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | Animal Kingdom | 76% | 7 min | 63 |
| Rock ’n’ Roller Coaster Starring The Muppets | Hollywood Studios | 75% | 9 min | 8 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Magic Kingdom | 75% | 8 min | 36 |
| Expedition Everest - Legend of the Forbidden Mountain | Animal Kingdom | 69% | 9 min | 68 |
| Na'vi River Journey | Animal Kingdom | 68% | 10 min | 68 |
| Soarin' Around the World | EPCOT | 62% | 11 min | 52 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ | Hollywood Studios | 60% | 10 min | 10 |
| Space Mountain | Magic Kingdom | 59% | 11 min | 37 |
| Remy's Ratatouille Adventure | EPCOT | 57% | 13 min | 68 |
| Seven Dwarfs Mine Train | Magic Kingdom | 57% | 12 min | 37 |
| Alien Swirling Saucers | Hollywood Studios | 54% | 10 min | 67 |
| Test Track | EPCOT | 54% | 15 min | 69 |
| Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 54% | 10 min | 35 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Magic Kingdom | 54% | 11 min | 37 |
| Kali River Rapids | Animal Kingdom | 53% | 14 min | 64 |
| Frozen Ever After | EPCOT | 50% | 13 min | 68 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run - A New Mission | Hollywood Studios | 50% | 16 min | 6 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind | EPCOT | 49% | 17 min | 69 |
| Toy Story Mania! | Hollywood Studios | 48% | 13 min | 67 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Magic Kingdom | 48% | 12 min | 31 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Magic Kingdom | 46% | 11 min | 37 |
| The Twilight Zone™ Tower of Terror | Hollywood Studios | 44% | 16 min | 57 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Hollywood Studios | 44% | 13 min | 66 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Magic Kingdom | 41% | 15 min | 37 |
| Slinky Dog Dash | Hollywood Studios | 34% | 19 min | 67 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Hollywood Studios | 31% | 19 min | 67 |
| Avatar Flight of Passage | Animal Kingdom | 31% | 20 min | 68 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Hollywood Studios | 30% | 24 min | 67 |
| TRON Lightcycle / Run | Magic Kingdom | 30% | 14 min | 37 |
| Jungle Cruise | Magic Kingdom | 30% | 15 min | 37 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.