How Accurate Are Our Walt Disney World Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
82%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
6 min
Average Error
90
Days Analyzed
4606
Ride Predictions Made
Magic Kingdom
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
Magic Kingdom
89%
5 min avg error
EPCOT
88%
5 min avg error
Animal Kingdom
83%
6 min avg error
Hollywood Studios
69%
9 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 90 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mission: SPACE | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 90 |
| Living with the Land | EPCOT | 100% | 3 min | 90 |
| Turtle Talk With Crush | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 90 |
| Reflections of China | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 84 |
| Beauty and the Beast Sing-Along | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 73 |
| Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 90 |
| Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360 | EPCOT | 100% | 1 min | 86 |
| Star Tours – The Adventures Continue | Hollywood Studios | 100% | 2 min | 80 |
| Vacation Fun - An Original Animated Short with Mickey & Minnie | Hollywood Studios | 100% | 1 min | 31 |
| The Hall of Presidents | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 52 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 56 |
| Mad Tea Party | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Country Bear Musical Jamboree | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 55 |
| Walt Disney's Enchanted Tiki Room | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 56 |
| The Magic Carpets of Aladdin | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 56 |
| Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Prince Charming Regal Carrousel | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Swiss Family Treehouse | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 56 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 22 |
| Maharajah Jungle Trek | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 81 |
| Gorilla Falls Exploration Trail | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 82 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Main Street, U.S.A. | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 36 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Fantasyland | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 36 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! - NEW! | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 68 |
| The Seas with Nemo & Friends | EPCOT | 99% | 3 min | 90 |
| Journey Into Imagination With Figment | EPCOT | 99% | 3 min | 90 |
| Spaceship Earth | EPCOT | 98% | 4 min | 90 |
| Impressions de France | EPCOT | 98% | 3 min | 81 |
| Tomorrowland Speedway | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 3 min | 56 |
| Enchanted Tales with Belle | Magic Kingdom | 96% | 4 min | 48 |
| Under the Sea - Journey of The Little Mermaid | Magic Kingdom | 96% | 4 min | 56 |
| "it's a small world" | Magic Kingdom | 96% | 4 min | 56 |
| Meet Cinderella and a Visiting Princess at Princess Fairytale Hall | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 5 min | 19 |
| Haunted Mansion | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 5 min | 56 |
| Astro Orbiter | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 3 min | 56 |
| The Barnstormer | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 4 min | 56 |
| Bluey's Wild World at Conservation Station | Animal Kingdom | 95% | 5 min | 19 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Magic Kingdom | 89% | 5 min | 55 |
| Wildlife Express Train | Animal Kingdom | 89% | 4 min | 90 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | Animal Kingdom | 83% | 7 min | 90 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Magic Kingdom | 82% | 6 min | 56 |
| Soarin' Around the World | EPCOT | 82% | 7 min | 87 |
| Alien Swirling Saucers | Hollywood Studios | 81% | 7 min | 80 |
| Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 80% | 6 min | 56 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Magic Kingdom | 77% | 7 min | 56 |
| Expedition Everest - Legend of the Forbidden Mountain | Animal Kingdom | 76% | 7 min | 90 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Hollywood Studios | 74% | 7 min | 80 |
| Na'vi River Journey | Animal Kingdom | 74% | 6 min | 90 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Hollywood Studios | 71% | 8 min | 79 |
| Toy Story Mania! | Hollywood Studios | 69% | 9 min | 80 |
| Frozen Ever After | EPCOT | 68% | 9 min | 90 |
| Seven Dwarfs Mine Train | Magic Kingdom | 68% | 8 min | 56 |
| Soarin' Across America | EPCOT | 67% | 10 min | 3 |
| Jungle Cruise | Magic Kingdom | 66% | 8 min | 56 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Magic Kingdom | 64% | 8 min | 56 |
| Remy's Ratatouille Adventure | EPCOT | 63% | 9 min | 89 |
| Kali River Rapids | Animal Kingdom | 63% | 9 min | 90 |
| Space Mountain | Magic Kingdom | 61% | 10 min | 56 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ | Hollywood Studios | 60% | 9 min | 80 |
| Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith | Hollywood Studios | 60% | 10 min | 58 |
| Avatar Flight of Passage | Animal Kingdom | 59% | 12 min | 90 |
| TRON Lightcycle / Run | Magic Kingdom | 57% | 12 min | 56 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Magic Kingdom | 57% | 10 min | 56 |
| Test Track | EPCOT | 52% | 12 min | 89 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Hollywood Studios | 51% | 14 min | 80 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind | EPCOT | 48% | 14 min | 90 |
| Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring The Muppets | Hollywood Studios | 45% | 10 min | 22 |
| Slinky Dog Dash | Hollywood Studios | 42% | 15 min | 77 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.