How Accurate Are Our Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

72%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
9 min
Average Error
15
Days Analyzed
471
Ride Predictions Made
Magic Kingdom
Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Magic Kingdom
88%
6 min avg error
EPCOT
82%
7 min avg error
Animal Kingdom
69%
9 min avg error
Hollywood Studios
64%
12 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 15 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride Park Accuracy Avg Error Samples
Spaceship Earth EPCOT 100% 3 min 15
Journey Into Imagination With Figment EPCOT 100% 2 min 15
Turtle Talk With Crush EPCOT 100% 3 min 15
Reflections of China EPCOT 100% 3 min 15
Living with the Land EPCOT 100% 4 min 15
Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros EPCOT 100% 2 min 15
Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360 EPCOT 100% 2 min 15
Gorilla Falls Exploration Trail Animal Kingdom 100% 0 min 15
Maharajah Jungle Trek Animal Kingdom 100% 0 min 15
Star Tours – The Adventures Continue Hollywood Studios 100% 5 min 15
Vacation Fun - An Original Animated Short with Mickey & Minnie Hollywood Studios 100% 1 min 15
The Seas with Nemo & Friends EPCOT 93% 3 min 15
Mission: SPACE EPCOT 93% 4 min 15
Zootopia: Better Zoogether! - NEW! Animal Kingdom 93% 4 min 15
Expedition Everest - Legend of the Forbidden Mountain Animal Kingdom 87% 7 min 15
Toy Story Mania! Hollywood Studios 73% 8 min 15
Alien Swirling Saucers Hollywood Studios 73% 6 min 15
Remy's Ratatouille Adventure EPCOT 67% 9 min 15
Frozen Ever After EPCOT 67% 9 min 15
Kilimanjaro Safaris Animal Kingdom 67% 10 min 15
Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway Hollywood Studios 67% 9 min 15
The Twilight Zone™ Tower of Terror Hollywood Studios 60% 14 min 5
The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ Hollywood Studios 60% 10 min 10
Soarin' Around the World EPCOT 53% 13 min 15
Na'vi River Journey Animal Kingdom 53% 9 min 15
Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run - A New Mission Hollywood Studios 50% 16 min 6
Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run Hollywood Studios 47% 16 min 15
Test Track EPCOT 40% 17 min 15
Slinky Dog Dash Hollywood Studios 40% 20 min 15
Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind EPCOT 33% 21 min 15
Avatar Flight of Passage Animal Kingdom 33% 18 min 15
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance Hollywood Studios 27% 28 min 15
Kali River Rapids Animal Kingdom 20% 20 min 15

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.