How Accurate Are Our Walt Disney World Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
80%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
6 min
Average Error
90
Days Analyzed
4254
Ride Predictions Made
Magic Kingdom
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
Magic Kingdom
86%
5 min avg error
EPCOT
86%
5 min avg error
Animal Kingdom
84%
5 min avg error
Hollywood Studios
65%
10 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 90 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Main Street, U.S.A. | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 44 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Fantasyland | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 44 |
| The Hall of Presidents | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 45 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 47 |
| Enchanted Tales with Belle | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 21 |
| Walt Disney's Enchanted Tiki Room | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 47 |
| Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 46 |
| Country Bear Musical Jamboree | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 47 |
| Prince Charming Regal Carrousel | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 47 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 47 |
| Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 46 |
| Mad Tea Party | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 47 |
| Swiss Family Treehouse | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 46 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! - NEW! | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 72 |
| Maharajah Jungle Trek | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 84 |
| Gorilla Falls Exploration Trail | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 82 |
| Turtle Talk With Crush | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 89 |
| Mission: SPACE | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 89 |
| Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360 | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 84 |
| Beauty and the Beast Sing-Along | EPCOT | 100% | 3 min | 54 |
| Reflections of China | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 78 |
| Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros | EPCOT | 100% | 2 min | 89 |
| Vacation Fun - An Original Animated Short with Mickey & Minnie | Hollywood Studios | 100% | 1 min | 50 |
| Walt Disney's Carousel of Progress | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 0 min | 18 |
| Zootopia: Better Zoogether! | Animal Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 18 |
| Star Tours – The Adventures Continue | Hollywood Studios | 99% | 2 min | 73 |
| Tomorrowland Speedway | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 4 min | 47 |
| The Barnstormer | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 4 min | 47 |
| The Magic Carpets of Aladdin | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 4 min | 47 |
| Impressions de France | EPCOT | 98% | 3 min | 81 |
| Living with the Land | EPCOT | 98% | 4 min | 89 |
| Journey Into Imagination With Figment | EPCOT | 98% | 4 min | 89 |
| Astro Orbiter | Magic Kingdom | 94% | 4 min | 47 |
| Spaceship Earth | EPCOT | 94% | 5 min | 89 |
| The Seas with Nemo & Friends | EPCOT | 94% | 4 min | 89 |
| Wildlife Express Train | Animal Kingdom | 93% | 4 min | 90 |
| Under the Sea - Journey of The Little Mermaid | Magic Kingdom | 91% | 5 min | 47 |
| "it's a small world" | Magic Kingdom | 91% | 5 min | 47 |
| Haunted Mansion | Magic Kingdom | 85% | 6 min | 47 |
| Kilimanjaro Safaris | Animal Kingdom | 83% | 6 min | 90 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Magic Kingdom | 81% | 7 min | 47 |
| Na'vi River Journey | Animal Kingdom | 74% | 7 min | 90 |
| Expedition Everest - Legend of the Forbidden Mountain | Animal Kingdom | 74% | 6 min | 90 |
| Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 73% | 6 min | 30 |
| Kali River Rapids | Animal Kingdom | 73% | 9 min | 90 |
| Alien Swirling Saucers | Hollywood Studios | 73% | 7 min | 73 |
| Soarin' Around the World | EPCOT | 73% | 8 min | 71 |
| Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 71% | 8 min | 17 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Magic Kingdom | 70% | 8 min | 47 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Magic Kingdom | 70% | 8 min | 47 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Hollywood Studios | 67% | 10 min | 72 |
| Remy's Ratatouille Adventure | EPCOT | 67% | 9 min | 88 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ | Hollywood Studios | 64% | 9 min | 55 |
| TRON Lightcycle / Run | Magic Kingdom | 62% | 9 min | 47 |
| Seven Dwarfs Mine Train | Magic Kingdom | 62% | 9 min | 47 |
| Toy Story Mania! | Hollywood Studios | 62% | 10 min | 73 |
| Frozen Ever After | EPCOT | 61% | 10 min | 89 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Hollywood Studios | 58% | 11 min | 73 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind | EPCOT | 58% | 12 min | 89 |
| Avatar Flight of Passage | Animal Kingdom | 57% | 12 min | 90 |
| Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith | Hollywood Studios | 56% | 12 min | 55 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Magic Kingdom | 55% | 10 min | 47 |
| Space Mountain | Magic Kingdom | 55% | 11 min | 47 |
| Soarin' Across America | EPCOT | 53% | 13 min | 17 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Magic Kingdom | 51% | 11 min | 47 |
| Jungle Cruise | Magic Kingdom | 47% | 11 min | 47 |
| Test Track | EPCOT | 47% | 13 min | 88 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Hollywood Studios | 45% | 16 min | 73 |
| Rock ’n’ Roller Coaster Starring The Muppets | Hollywood Studios | 44% | 20 min | 18 |
| The Twilight Zone™ Tower of Terror | Hollywood Studios | 44% | 16 min | 18 |
| Slinky Dog Dash | Hollywood Studios | 42% | 16 min | 72 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.