How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Resort Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
80%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
7 min
Average Error
65
Days Analyzed
2601
Ride Predictions Made
Disneyland Park
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
Disneyland Park
87%
5 min avg error
Disney California Adventure
75%
8 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 65 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disneyland Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 46 |
| Casey Jr. Circus Train | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 46 |
| Mark Twain Riverboat | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 43 |
| Mad Tea Party | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 46 |
| King Arthur Carrousel | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 46 |
| Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 28 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 57 |
| Jessie's Critter Carousel | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 58 |
| Redwood Creek Challenge Trail | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 0 min | 58 |
| Games of Pixar Pier | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 0 min | 13 |
| Sailing Ship Columbia | Disneyland Park | 100% | 0 min | 5 |
| Snow White's Enchanted Wish | Disneyland Park | 98% | 4 min | 46 |
| Storybook Land Canal Boats | Disneyland Park | 98% | 3 min | 46 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Disneyland Park | 98% | 4 min | 46 |
| Pinocchio's Daring Journey | Disneyland Park | 98% | 3 min | 46 |
| Disneyland Monorail | Disneyland Park | 97% | 4 min | 36 |
| Mr. Toad's Wild Ride | Disneyland Park | 96% | 3 min | 46 |
| Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes | Disneyland Park | 94% | 5 min | 32 |
| Alice in Wonderland | Disneyland Park | 93% | 4 min | 46 |
| Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage | Disneyland Park | 91% | 4 min | 46 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Park | 91% | 5 min | 46 |
| Jumpin' Jellyfish | Disney California Adventure | 91% | 4 min | 58 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 46 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 46 |
| Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 46 |
| Autopia | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 46 |
| Mater's Junkyard Jamboree | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 5 min | 58 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Park | 88% | 7 min | 16 |
| Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters | Disneyland Park | 88% | 4 min | 8 |
| Haunted Mansion | Disneyland Park | 87% | 5 min | 46 |
| Jungle Cruise | Disneyland Park | 86% | 5 min | 36 |
| Silly Symphony Swings | Disney California Adventure | 86% | 5 min | 21 |
| Astro Orbitor | Disneyland Park | 85% | 6 min | 46 |
| Star Tours - The Adventures Continue | Disneyland Park | 83% | 7 min | 46 |
| Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue! | Disney California Adventure | 83% | 8 min | 58 |
| Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin | Disneyland Park | 81% | 7 min | 36 |
| Luigi's Rollickin' Roadsters | Disney California Adventure | 81% | 6 min | 58 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Disneyland Park | 80% | 7 min | 46 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Disneyland Park | 80% | 7 min | 46 |
| The Little Mermaid - Ariel's Undersea Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 79% | 7 min | 58 |
| Golden Zephyr | Disney California Adventure | 79% | 7 min | 57 |
| Matterhorn Bobsleds | Disneyland Park | 78% | 8 min | 46 |
| Goofy's Sky School | Disney California Adventure | 78% | 8 min | 58 |
| Indiana Jones™ Adventure | Disneyland Park | 72% | 9 min | 46 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Disneyland Park | 72% | 9 min | 46 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round – Non-Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 72% | 8 min | 58 |
| Toy Story Midway Mania! | Disney California Adventure | 70% | 8 min | 43 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round - Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 69% | 9 min | 58 |
| WEB SLINGERS: A Spider-Man Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 67% | 9 min | 58 |
| Space Mountain | Disneyland Park | 64% | 10 min | 14 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Disneyland Park | 63% | 11 min | 46 |
| Incredicoaster | Disney California Adventure | 62% | 11 min | 58 |
| Grizzly River Run | Disney California Adventure | 62% | 12 min | 58 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Disneyland Park | 59% | 12 min | 46 |
| Soarin' Over California | Disney California Adventure | 52% | 13 min | 58 |
| Hyperspace Mountain | Disneyland Park | 47% | 12 min | 32 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT! | Disney California Adventure | 41% | 22 min | 58 |
| Radiator Springs Racers | Disney California Adventure | 34% | 20 min | 58 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.