How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Resort Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
82%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
6 min
Average Error
88
Days Analyzed
4017
Ride Predictions Made
Disneyland Park
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
Disneyland Park
86%
5 min avg error
Disney California Adventure
78%
7 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 88 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr. Toad's Wild Ride | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 81 |
| Snow White's Enchanted Wish | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 81 |
| Mark Twain Riverboat | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 75 |
| Storybook Land Canal Boats | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 81 |
| Casey Jr. Circus Train | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 81 |
| Pinocchio's Daring Journey | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 81 |
| Disneyland Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 81 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 81 |
| Mad Tea Party | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 81 |
| King Arthur Carrousel | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 70 |
| Inside Out Emotional Whirlwind | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 3 min | 11 |
| Jumpin' Jellyfish | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 3 min | 70 |
| Jessie's Critter Carousel | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 70 |
| Redwood Creek Challenge Trail | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 0 min | 70 |
| Games of Pixar Pier | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 28 |
| Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 55 |
| Sailing Ship Columbia | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 8 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 0 min | 42 |
| Silly Symphony Swings | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 6 |
| Alice in Wonderland | Disneyland Park | 98% | 4 min | 81 |
| Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes | Disneyland Park | 97% | 4 min | 59 |
| Disneyland Monorail | Disneyland Park | 95% | 4 min | 79 |
| Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster | Disneyland Park | 94% | 5 min | 81 |
| Autopia | Disneyland Park | 91% | 5 min | 81 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Park | 91% | 5 min | 81 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Park | 90% | 5 min | 81 |
| Goofy's Sky School | Disney California Adventure | 90% | 5 min | 70 |
| Mater's Junkyard Jamboree | Disney California Adventure | 90% | 5 min | 70 |
| Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 81 |
| Golden Zephyr | Disney California Adventure | 87% | 6 min | 69 |
| Star Tours - The Adventures Continue | Disneyland Park | 84% | 6 min | 81 |
| Jungle Cruise | Disneyland Park | 84% | 6 min | 81 |
| Luigi's Rollickin' Roadsters | Disney California Adventure | 84% | 5 min | 70 |
| Astro Orbitor | Disneyland Park | 83% | 6 min | 81 |
| The Little Mermaid - Ariel's Undersea Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 83% | 6 min | 70 |
| Haunted Mansion | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 81 |
| Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 36 |
| Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue! | Disney California Adventure | 81% | 6 min | 70 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round – Non-Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 81% | 7 min | 70 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Park | 80% | 6 min | 81 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Park | 79% | 6 min | 28 |
| Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin | Disneyland Park | 76% | 7 min | 79 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round - Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 76% | 8 min | 70 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Disneyland Park | 75% | 7 min | 81 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Disneyland Park | 73% | 7 min | 81 |
| Space Mountain | Disneyland Park | 71% | 8 min | 48 |
| Matterhorn Bobsleds | Disneyland Park | 70% | 8 min | 81 |
| WEB SLINGERS: A Spider-Man Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 69% | 8 min | 70 |
| Incredicoaster | Disney California Adventure | 67% | 9 min | 70 |
| Grizzly River Run | Disney California Adventure | 67% | 10 min | 70 |
| Indiana Jones™ Adventure | Disneyland Park | 65% | 9 min | 81 |
| Toy Story Midway Mania! | Disney California Adventure | 65% | 10 min | 66 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Disneyland Park | 63% | 11 min | 81 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Disneyland Park | 60% | 9 min | 81 |
| Soarin' Around the World | Disney California Adventure | 60% | 9 min | 10 |
| Soarin' Over California | Disney California Adventure | 58% | 11 min | 60 |
| Hyperspace Mountain | Disneyland Park | 47% | 12 min | 32 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Disneyland Park | 46% | 15 min | 81 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT! | Disney California Adventure | 46% | 20 min | 70 |
| Radiator Springs Racers | Disney California Adventure | 39% | 15 min | 70 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.