We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mater's Junkyard Jamboree | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 5 min | 8 |
| Silly Symphony Swings | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 3 min | 8 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 8 |
| Jessie's Critter Carousel | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 8 |
| Redwood Creek Challenge Trail | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 8 |
| Toy Story Midway Mania! | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 4 |
| Indiana Jones™ Adventure | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| Matterhorn Bobsleds | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| Haunted Mansion | Disneyland Park | 100% | 5 min | 7 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| Star Tours - The Adventures Continue | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 7 |
| Alice in Wonderland | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 7 |
| Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 7 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 7 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Park | 100% | 6 min | 7 |
| Autopia | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| Astro Orbitor | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| Mr. Toad's Wild Ride | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| Snow White's Enchanted Wish | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| Storybook Land Canal Boats | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 7 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Park | 100% | 4 min | 7 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 7 |
| Pinocchio's Daring Journey | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| Mark Twain Riverboat | Disneyland Park | 100% | 0 min | 7 |
| Casey Jr. Circus Train | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 7 |
| Mad Tea Party | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| King Arthur Carrousel | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| Disneyland Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 7 |
| Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island | Disneyland Park | 100% | 0 min | 3 |
| WEB SLINGERS: A Spider-Man Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 6 min | 8 |
| Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue! | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 6 min | 8 |
| The Little Mermaid - Ariel's Undersea Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 5 min | 8 |
| Jumpin' Jellyfish | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 5 min | 8 |
| Golden Zephyr | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 3 min | 8 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Disneyland Park | 86% | 4 min | 7 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Disneyland Park | 86% | 4 min | 7 |
| Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster | Disneyland Park | 86% | 4 min | 7 |
| Grizzly River Run | Disney California Adventure | 75% | 9 min | 8 |
| Luigi's Rollickin' Roadsters | Disney California Adventure | 75% | 6 min | 8 |
| Space Mountain | Disneyland Park | 71% | 7 min | 7 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Disneyland Park | 71% | 6 min | 7 |
| Goofy's Sky School | Disney California Adventure | 62% | 9 min | 8 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round - Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 62% | 10 min | 8 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round – Non-Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 62% | 9 min | 8 |
| Incredicoaster | Disney California Adventure | 50% | 10 min | 8 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Disneyland Park | 43% | 13 min | 7 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT! | Disney California Adventure | 38% | 18 min | 8 |
| Soarin' Over California | Disney California Adventure | 38% | 20 min | 8 |
| Radiator Springs Racers | Disney California Adventure | 25% | 25 min | 8 |
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.