How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Resort Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
86%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
5 min
Average Error
91
Days Analyzed
3585
Ride Predictions Made
Disney California Adventure
Most Accurate Park
Accuracy by Park
Disney California Adventure
88%
5 min avg error
Disneyland Park
85%
5 min avg error
Accuracy Trend (Last 91 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Twain Riverboat | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 60 |
| Storybook Land Canal Boats | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| Casey Jr. Circus Train | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 62 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| Pinocchio's Daring Journey | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| Disneyland Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 61 |
| King Arthur Carrousel | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 57 |
| Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island | Disneyland Park | 100% | 0 min | 20 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 64 |
| Jumpin' Jellyfish | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 73 |
| Silly Symphony Swings | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 43 |
| Games of Pixar Pier | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 56 |
| Jessie's Critter Carousel | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 73 |
| Redwood Creek Challenge Trail | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 0 min | 72 |
| Mad Tea Party | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 46 |
| Alice in Wonderland | Disneyland Park | 98% | 4 min | 62 |
| Mr. Toad's Wild Ride | Disneyland Park | 98% | 3 min | 62 |
| Snow White's Enchanted Wish | Disneyland Park | 97% | 4 min | 62 |
| Inside Out Emotional Whirlwind | Disney California Adventure | 97% | 3 min | 73 |
| Golden Zephyr | Disney California Adventure | 96% | 2 min | 73 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Park | 95% | 5 min | 62 |
| Mater's Junkyard Jamboree | Disney California Adventure | 95% | 4 min | 73 |
| Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster | Disneyland Park | 94% | 5 min | 62 |
| Disneyland Monorail | Disneyland Park | 93% | 4 min | 61 |
| Luigi's Rollickin' Roadsters | Disney California Adventure | 93% | 5 min | 73 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Park | 92% | 4 min | 62 |
| The Little Mermaid - Ariel's Undersea Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 92% | 5 min | 73 |
| Autopia | Disneyland Park | 90% | 5 min | 62 |
| Toy Story Midway Mania! | Disney California Adventure | 90% | 5 min | 73 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round - Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 90% | 5 min | 73 |
| Jungle Cruise | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 62 |
| Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes | Disneyland Park | 89% | 3 min | 9 |
| Goofy's Sky School | Disney California Adventure | 89% | 6 min | 73 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round – Non-Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 89% | 5 min | 73 |
| Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage | Disneyland Park | 87% | 5 min | 62 |
| Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue! | Disney California Adventure | 86% | 6 min | 73 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Park | 85% | 6 min | 62 |
| Astro Orbitor | Disneyland Park | 85% | 6 min | 62 |
| WEB SLINGERS: A Spider-Man Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 85% | 6 min | 73 |
| Villains Grove at Oogie Boogie Bash | Disney California Adventure | 83% | 5 min | 6 |
| Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin | Disneyland Park | 81% | 7 min | 62 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Park | 79% | 6 min | 62 |
| Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters | Disneyland Park | 79% | 6 min | 62 |
| Soarin' Around the World | Disney California Adventure | 78% | 7 min | 73 |
| Grizzly River Run | Disney California Adventure | 78% | 7 min | 73 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Disneyland Park | 76% | 7 min | 62 |
| Star Tours - The Adventures Continue | Disneyland Park | 76% | 7 min | 62 |
| Incredicoaster | Disney California Adventure | 74% | 8 min | 73 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Disneyland Park | 73% | 7 min | 62 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Disneyland Park | 73% | 8 min | 62 |
| Space Mountain | Disneyland Park | 65% | 9 min | 62 |
| Haunted Mansion | Disneyland Park | 64% | 11 min | 50 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Monsters After Dark | Disney California Adventure | 64% | 11 min | 14 |
| Matterhorn Bobsleds | Disneyland Park | 62% | 10 min | 58 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT! | Disney California Adventure | 62% | 9 min | 73 |
| Indiana Jones™ Adventure | Disneyland Park | 55% | 10 min | 44 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Disneyland Park | 52% | 12 min | 62 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Disneyland Park | 50% | 11 min | 62 |
| Radiator Springs Racers | Disney California Adventure | 48% | 13 min | 73 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.