How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Resort Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

82%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

6 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

3724

Ride Predictions Made

Disneyland Park

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Park

83%

6 min avg error

Disney California Adventure

82%

6 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 89 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Mickey's PhilharMagic	Disney California Adventure	100%	1 min	25
Inside Out Emotional Whirlwind	Disney California Adventure	100%	2 min	38
Jumpin' Jellyfish	Disney California Adventure	100%	2 min	54
Redwood Creek Challenge Trail	Disney California Adventure	100%	1 min	54
Silly Symphony Swings	Disney California Adventure	100%	0 min	3
Games of Pixar Pier	Disney California Adventure	100%	0 min	40
Jessie's Critter Carousel	Disney California Adventure	100%	2 min	54
Mark Twain Riverboat	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	77
Storybook Land Canal Boats	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	80
Casey Jr. Circus Train	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	80
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	80
Disneyland Railroad	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	80
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	80
Mad Tea Party	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	80
King Arthur Carrousel	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	69
Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island	Disneyland Park	100%	0 min	33
Sailing Ship Columbia	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	3
Mr. Toad's Wild Ride	Disneyland Park	99%	3 min	80
Alice in Wonderland	Disneyland Park	98%	4 min	80
Snow White's Enchanted Wish	Disneyland Park	98%	4 min	80
Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes	Disneyland Park	97%	4 min	34
Mater's Junkyard Jamboree	Disney California Adventure	94%	5 min	54
Disneyland Monorail	Disneyland Park	92%	4 min	79
Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster	Disneyland Park	92%	5 min	80
"it's a small world"	Disneyland Park	92%	4 min	80
Goofy's Sky School	Disney California Adventure	91%	5 min	54
The Little Mermaid - Ariel's Undersea Adventure	Disney California Adventure	91%	6 min	54
Golden Zephyr	Disney California Adventure	91%	4 min	54
Autopia	Disneyland Park	91%	5 min	80
Peter Pan's Flight	Disneyland Park	90%	5 min	80
Luigi's Rollickin' Roadsters	Disney California Adventure	89%	5 min	54
Pixar Pal-A-Round - Swinging	Disney California Adventure	83%	5 min	54
Pixar Pal-A-Round – Non-Swinging	Disney California Adventure	83%	5 min	54
Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage	Disneyland Park	81%	6 min	80
Astro Orbitor	Disneyland Park	81%	6 min	80
Jungle Cruise	Disneyland Park	81%	6 min	80
Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue!	Disney California Adventure	80%	6 min	54
Toy Story Midway Mania!	Disney California Adventure	78%	8 min	54
Soarin' Around the World	Disney California Adventure	78%	7 min	37
Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters	Disneyland Park	77%	7 min	71
WEB SLINGERS: A Spider-Man Adventure	Disney California Adventure	76%	8 min	54
Dumbo the Flying Elephant	Disneyland Park	76%	7 min	80
Star Tours - The Adventures Continue	Disneyland Park	76%	7 min	80
Pirates of the Caribbean	Disneyland Park	74%	7 min	57
Haunted Mansion	Disneyland Park	72%	8 min	68
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Disneyland Park	71%	8 min	80
Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway	Disneyland Park	71%	7 min	80
Incredicoaster	Disney California Adventure	69%	8 min	54
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad	Disneyland Park	69%	7 min	80
Space Mountain	Disneyland Park	66%	9 min	79
Grizzly River Run	Disney California Adventure	63%	10 min	54
Matterhorn Bobsleds	Disneyland Park	61%	10 min	76
Indiana Jones™ Adventure	Disneyland Park	57%	10 min	80
Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run	Disneyland Park	57%	9 min	80
Soarin' Over California	Disney California Adventure	53%	12 min	17
Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT!	Disney California Adventure	52%	15 min	54
Tiana's Bayou Adventure	Disneyland Park	46%	13 min	80
Radiator Springs Racers	Disney California Adventure	44%	14 min	54
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance	Disneyland Park	39%	16 min	80

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.