How Accurate Are Our Tokyo Disney Resort Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

69%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

12 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

5217

Ride Predictions Made

Tokyo Disneyland

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Tokyo Disneyland

78%

9 min avg error

Tokyo DisneySea

61%

16 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 89 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Country Bear Theater	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	3 min	89
The Enchanted Tiki Room: Stitch Presents “Aloha E Komo Mai!”	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Mark Twain Riverboat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	59
Omnibus	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Chip 'n Dale's Treehouse	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	69
Tom Sawyer Island Rafts	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	89
Donald's Boat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	69
Big City Vehicles	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	1 min	88
Sindbad's Storybook Voyage	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	3 min	78
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Lost River Delta)	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	2 min	88
Stitch Encounter	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	89
Mickey's PhilharMagic	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	89
Goofy's Paint 'n' Play House	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	89
Alice's Tea Party	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	89
The Leonardo Challenge	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	2 min	71
Pirates of the Caribbean	Tokyo Disneyland	98%	4 min	51
Cinderella's Fairy Tale Hall	Tokyo Disneyland	98%	3 min	89
DisneySea Electric Railway (Port Discovery)	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	4 min	89
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	2 min	89
Westernland Shootin' Gallery	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	3 min	89
Minnie's House	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	2 min	89
DisneySea Electric Railway (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	96%	5 min	89
Caravan Carousel	Tokyo DisneySea	96%	3 min	89
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	4 min	71
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Mediterranean Harbor)	Tokyo DisneySea	94%	5 min	88
“it’s a small world with Groot”	Tokyo Disneyland	94%	4 min	69
Jumpin' Jellyfish	Tokyo DisneySea	91%	6 min	89
The Magic Lamp Theater	Tokyo DisneySea	91%	5 min	89
Castle Carrousel	Tokyo Disneyland	91%	5 min	89
Western River Railroad	Tokyo Disneyland	90%	5 min	89
Snow White's Adventures	Tokyo Disneyland	88%	6 min	89
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue	Tokyo Disneyland	87%	5 min	89
The Whirlpool	Tokyo DisneySea	84%	6 min	89
Scuttle's Scooters	Tokyo DisneySea	80%	7 min	89
Beaver Brothers Explorer Canoes	Tokyo Disneyland	77%	7 min	71
Venetian Gondolas	Tokyo DisneySea	74%	8 min	88
Jungle Cruise: Wildlife Expeditions	Tokyo Disneyland	73%	8 min	89
Turtle Talk	Tokyo DisneySea	72%	9 min	86
Gadget's Go Coaster	Tokyo Disneyland	72%	8 min	69
Peter Pan's Flight	Tokyo Disneyland	68%	8 min	56
Jasmine's Flying Carpets	Tokyo DisneySea	65%	9 min	89
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Tokyo Disneyland	65%	9 min	89
Blowfish Balloon Race	Tokyo DisneySea	62%	9 min	85
Nemo & Friends SeaRider	Tokyo DisneySea	60%	9 min	89
Haunted Mansion	Tokyo Disneyland	56%	12 min	89
Flounder's Flying Fish Coaster	Tokyo DisneySea	52%	10 min	89
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea	Tokyo DisneySea	36%	15 min	67
Big Thunder Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	34%	21 min	64
Fairy Tinker Bell's Busy Buggies	Tokyo DisneySea	33%	16 min	89
Splash Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	27%	30 min	89
Aquatopia	Tokyo DisneySea	26%	17 min	85
Anna and Elsa's Frozen Journey	Tokyo DisneySea	19%	54 min	62
The Happy Ride with Baymax	Tokyo Disneyland	19%	31 min	89
Enchanted Tale of Beauty and the Beast	Tokyo Disneyland	17%	38 min	89
Tower of Terror	Tokyo DisneySea	15%	41 min	89
Raging Spirits	Tokyo DisneySea	15%	32 min	89
Peter Pan's Never Land Adventure	Tokyo DisneySea	15%	31 min	89
Rapunzel's Lantern Festival	Tokyo DisneySea	13%	39 min	71
Monsters, Inc. Ride & Go Seek!	Tokyo Disneyland	13%	28 min	71
Pooh's Hunny Hunt	Tokyo Disneyland	13%	28 min	70
Journey to the Center of the Earth	Tokyo DisneySea	12%	51 min	89
Soaring: Fantastic Flight	Tokyo DisneySea	10%	52 min	89
Toy Story Mania!	Tokyo DisneySea	8%	44 min	89

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Tokyo Disney Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.