How Accurate Are Our Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

73%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
10 min
Average Error
15
Days Analyzed
884
Ride Predictions Made
Tokyo Disneyland
Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Tokyo Disneyland
83%
6 min avg error
Tokyo DisneySea
62%
13 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 15 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride Park Accuracy Avg Error Samples
DisneySea Electric Railway (American Waterfront) Tokyo DisneySea 100% 3 min 15
DisneySea Electric Railway (Port Discovery) Tokyo DisneySea 100% 3 min 15
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Lost River Delta) Tokyo DisneySea 100% 3 min 15
The Leonardo Challenge Tokyo DisneySea 100% 2 min 15
Big City Vehicles Tokyo DisneySea 100% 1 min 15
Stitch Encounter Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
Country Bear Theater Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
Cinderella's Fairy Tale Hall Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
“it’s a small world with Groot” Tokyo Disneyland 100% 3 min 15
Mark Twain Riverboat Tokyo Disneyland 100% 1 min 15
The Enchanted Tiki Room: Stitch Presents “Aloha E Komo Mai!” Tokyo Disneyland 100% 1 min 15
Goofy's Paint 'n' Play House Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
Westernland Shootin' Gallery Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
Alice's Tea Party Tokyo Disneyland 100% 3 min 15
Chip 'n Dale's Treehouse Tokyo Disneyland 100% 1 min 15
Tom Sawyer Island Rafts Tokyo Disneyland 100% 1 min 15
Donald's Boat Tokyo Disneyland 100% 0 min 15
Omnibus Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
Mickey's PhilharMagic Tokyo Disneyland 100% 2 min 15
Jumpin' Jellyfish Tokyo DisneySea 93% 5 min 15
Caravan Carousel Tokyo DisneySea 93% 3 min 15
Western River Railroad Tokyo Disneyland 93% 5 min 15
Snow White's Adventures Tokyo Disneyland 93% 3 min 15
Pinocchio's Daring Journey Tokyo Disneyland 93% 3 min 15
Pirates of the Caribbean Tokyo Disneyland 93% 4 min 15
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue Tokyo Disneyland 93% 5 min 15
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (American Waterfront) Tokyo DisneySea 92% 3 min 12
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin Tokyo Disneyland 92% 5 min 12
The Whirlpool Tokyo DisneySea 87% 5 min 15
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Mediterranean Harbor) Tokyo DisneySea 87% 5 min 15
Castle Carrousel Tokyo Disneyland 87% 4 min 15
Blowfish Balloon Race Tokyo DisneySea 80% 7 min 15
The Magic Lamp Theater Tokyo DisneySea 80% 5 min 15
Jungle Cruise: Wildlife Expeditions Tokyo Disneyland 80% 5 min 15
Minnie's House Tokyo Disneyland 75% 8 min 4
Turtle Talk Tokyo DisneySea 73% 7 min 15
Jasmine's Flying Carpets Tokyo DisneySea 73% 9 min 15
Scuttle's Scooters Tokyo DisneySea 73% 7 min 15
Gadget's Go Coaster Tokyo Disneyland 73% 7 min 15
Beaver Brothers Explorer Canoes Tokyo Disneyland 73% 8 min 15
Flounder's Flying Fish Coaster Tokyo DisneySea 67% 9 min 15
Venetian Gondolas Tokyo DisneySea 67% 9 min 15
Aquatopia Tokyo DisneySea 64% 9 min 11
Fairy Tinker Bell's Busy Buggies Tokyo DisneySea 60% 12 min 15
Haunted Mansion Tokyo Disneyland 53% 9 min 15
Nemo & Friends SeaRider Tokyo DisneySea 47% 14 min 15
Enchanted Tale of Beauty and the Beast Tokyo Disneyland 47% 18 min 15
The Happy Ride with Baymax Tokyo Disneyland 40% 18 min 15
Monsters, Inc. Ride & Go Seek! Tokyo Disneyland 40% 17 min 15
Pooh's Hunny Hunt Tokyo Disneyland 40% 15 min 15
Big Thunder Mountain Tokyo Disneyland 40% 21 min 15
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea Tokyo DisneySea 40% 13 min 5
Splash Mountain Tokyo Disneyland 33% 26 min 15
Tower of Terror Tokyo DisneySea 27% 25 min 15
Anna and Elsa's Frozen Journey Tokyo DisneySea 20% 40 min 15
Rapunzel's Lantern Festival Tokyo DisneySea 20% 29 min 15
Peter Pan's Never Land Adventure Tokyo DisneySea 20% 25 min 15
Journey to the Center of the Earth Tokyo DisneySea 13% 35 min 15
Raging Spirits Tokyo DisneySea 13% 27 min 15
Soaring: Fantastic Flight Tokyo DisneySea 7% 35 min 15
Toy Story Mania! Tokyo DisneySea 7% 30 min 15

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Tokyo Disney Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.