How Accurate Are Our Tokyo Disney Resort Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

78%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

9 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

5078

Ride Predictions Made

Tokyo Disneyland

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Tokyo Disneyland

85%

6 min avg error

Tokyo DisneySea

70%

11 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 89 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Sindbad's Storybook Voyage	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	3 min	89
Big City Vehicles	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	2 min	88
Pirates of the Caribbean	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	4 min	75
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	3 min	71
Stitch Encounter	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
The Enchanted Tiki Room: Stitch Presents “Aloha E Komo Mai!”	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	89
Alice's Tea Party	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	84
Cinderella's Fairy Tale Hall	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	3 min	89
Mickey's PhilharMagic	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Minnie's House	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	89
Goofy's Paint 'n' Play House	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Mark Twain Riverboat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Chip 'n Dale's Treehouse	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	69
Omnibus	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Tom Sawyer Island Rafts	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	89
Donald's Boat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	69
DisneySea Electric Railway (Port Discovery)	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	3 min	89
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Lost River Delta)	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	3 min	88
Country Bear Theater	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	89
Westernland Shootin' Gallery	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	89
The Magic Lamp Theater	Tokyo DisneySea	98%	3 min	89
DisneySea Electric Railway (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	4 min	89
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	2 min	89
Caravan Carousel	Tokyo DisneySea	96%	4 min	89
Western River Railroad	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	5 min	68
“it’s a small world with Groot”	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	3 min	53
Castle Carrousel	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	4 min	69
The Leonardo Challenge	Tokyo DisneySea	96%	2 min	26
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Mediterranean Harbor)	Tokyo DisneySea	95%	4 min	60
Jumpin' Jellyfish	Tokyo DisneySea	94%	4 min	89
Snow White's Adventures	Tokyo Disneyland	94%	4 min	89
The Whirlpool	Tokyo DisneySea	93%	5 min	89
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue	Tokyo Disneyland	92%	4 min	89
Scuttle's Scooters	Tokyo DisneySea	88%	6 min	84
Turtle Talk	Tokyo DisneySea	88%	6 min	86
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Tokyo Disneyland	87%	6 min	89
Gadget's Go Coaster	Tokyo Disneyland	86%	6 min	69
Jungle Cruise: Wildlife Expeditions	Tokyo Disneyland	83%	6 min	89
Peter Pan's Flight	Tokyo Disneyland	81%	7 min	89
Blowfish Balloon Race	Tokyo DisneySea	79%	6 min	86
Jasmine's Flying Carpets	Tokyo DisneySea	76%	6 min	75
Fairy Tinker Bell's Busy Buggies	Tokyo DisneySea	71%	9 min	89
Flounder's Flying Fish Coaster	Tokyo DisneySea	70%	8 min	74
Beaver Brothers Explorer Canoes	Tokyo Disneyland	69%	7 min	26
Venetian Gondolas	Tokyo DisneySea	68%	9 min	88
Haunted Mansion	Tokyo Disneyland	68%	10 min	60
Nemo & Friends SeaRider	Tokyo DisneySea	66%	8 min	89
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea	Tokyo DisneySea	58%	10 min	89
Big Thunder Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	48%	14 min	77
Aquatopia	Tokyo DisneySea	45%	13 min	89
Rapunzel's Lantern Festival	Tokyo DisneySea	37%	22 min	65
The Happy Ride with Baymax	Tokyo Disneyland	37%	20 min	89
Enchanted Tale of Beauty and the Beast	Tokyo Disneyland	37%	22 min	89
Peter Pan's Never Land Adventure	Tokyo DisneySea	35%	20 min	89
Splash Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	35%	20 min	89
Anna and Elsa's Frozen Journey	Tokyo DisneySea	30%	32 min	89
Raging Spirits	Tokyo DisneySea	30%	22 min	89
Soaring: Fantastic Flight	Tokyo DisneySea	28%	30 min	89
Tower of Terror	Tokyo DisneySea	26%	29 min	89
Toy Story Mania!	Tokyo DisneySea	25%	29 min	89
Pooh's Hunny Hunt	Tokyo Disneyland	25%	24 min	28
Journey to the Center of the Earth	Tokyo DisneySea	24%	33 min	89
Monsters, Inc. Ride & Go Seek!	Tokyo Disneyland	22%	21 min	58

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Tokyo Disney Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.