How Accurate Are Our Tokyo Disney Resort Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

68%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

13 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

4021

Ride Predictions Made

Tokyo Disneyland

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Tokyo Disneyland

76%

9 min avg error

Tokyo DisneySea

60%

17 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 68 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
The Leonardo Challenge	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	2 min	68
Big City Vehicles	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	1 min	68
Country Bear Theater	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	3 min	68
The Enchanted Tiki Room: Stitch Presents “Aloha E Komo Mai!”	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	68
Mark Twain Riverboat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	38
Omnibus	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	68
Tom Sawyer Island Rafts	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	68
Donald's Boat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	68
Chip 'n Dale's Treehouse	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	68
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Lost River Delta)	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	2 min	67
Caravan Carousel	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	2 min	68
Stitch Encounter	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	68
Alice's Tea Party	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	68
Mickey's PhilharMagic	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	68
Goofy's Paint 'n' Play House	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	68
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	98%	1 min	65
DisneySea Electric Railway (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	5 min	68
DisneySea Electric Railway (Port Discovery)	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	4 min	68
Sindbad's Storybook Voyage	Tokyo DisneySea	97%	3 min	34
“it’s a small world with Groot”	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	4 min	68
Cinderella's Fairy Tale Hall	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	3 min	68
Westernland Shootin' Gallery	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	3 min	68
Pirates of the Caribbean	Tokyo Disneyland	95%	4 min	44
Jumpin' Jellyfish	Tokyo DisneySea	94%	6 min	68
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Tokyo Disneyland	94%	4 min	68
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Mediterranean Harbor)	Tokyo DisneySea	93%	6 min	67
Snow White's Adventures	Tokyo Disneyland	90%	6 min	68
Castle Carrousel	Tokyo Disneyland	90%	5 min	68
Minnie's House	Tokyo Disneyland	89%	4 min	54
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue	Tokyo Disneyland	88%	5 min	68
Western River Railroad	Tokyo Disneyland	85%	6 min	68
The Whirlpool	Tokyo DisneySea	84%	6 min	68
The Magic Lamp Theater	Tokyo DisneySea	84%	6 min	68
Beaver Brothers Explorer Canoes	Tokyo Disneyland	79%	7 min	68
Scuttle's Scooters	Tokyo DisneySea	78%	7 min	68
Venetian Gondolas	Tokyo DisneySea	75%	8 min	68
Jungle Cruise: Wildlife Expeditions	Tokyo Disneyland	75%	7 min	68
Gadget's Go Coaster	Tokyo Disneyland	72%	8 min	68
Peter Pan's Flight	Tokyo Disneyland	67%	9 min	12
Turtle Talk	Tokyo DisneySea	66%	9 min	68
Jasmine's Flying Carpets	Tokyo DisneySea	66%	9 min	68
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Tokyo Disneyland	66%	9 min	65
Nemo & Friends SeaRider	Tokyo DisneySea	65%	10 min	68
Blowfish Balloon Race	Tokyo DisneySea	63%	9 min	67
Flounder's Flying Fish Coaster	Tokyo DisneySea	51%	10 min	68
Haunted Mansion	Tokyo Disneyland	46%	13 min	68
Fairy Tinker Bell's Busy Buggies	Tokyo DisneySea	28%	17 min	68
Aquatopia	Tokyo DisneySea	25%	17 min	52
Big Thunder Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	22%	24 min	55
Monsters, Inc. Ride & Go Seek!	Tokyo Disneyland	19%	26 min	68
Peter Pan's Never Land Adventure	Tokyo DisneySea	16%	32 min	68
Splash Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	16%	33 min	68
The Happy Ride with Baymax	Tokyo Disneyland	16%	33 min	68
Tower of Terror	Tokyo DisneySea	15%	38 min	68
Pooh's Hunny Hunt	Tokyo Disneyland	15%	26 min	68
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea	Tokyo DisneySea	14%	19 min	28
Raging Spirits	Tokyo DisneySea	13%	32 min	68
Rapunzel's Lantern Festival	Tokyo DisneySea	12%	37 min	68
Enchanted Tale of Beauty and the Beast	Tokyo Disneyland	12%	41 min	68
Journey to the Center of the Earth	Tokyo DisneySea	9%	53 min	68
Anna and Elsa's Frozen Journey	Tokyo DisneySea	7%	62 min	41
Toy Story Mania!	Tokyo DisneySea	4%	46 min	68
Soaring: Fantastic Flight	Tokyo DisneySea	3%	56 min	68

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Tokyo Disney Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.