How Accurate Are Our Tokyo Disney Resort Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

81%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

7 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

5168

Ride Predictions Made

Tokyo Disneyland

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Tokyo Disneyland

86%

5 min avg error

Tokyo DisneySea

76%

9 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 90 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
DisneySea Electric Railway (Port Discovery)	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	3 min	90
Big City Vehicles	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	2 min	90
The Leonardo Challenge	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	2 min	31
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	1 min	90
Snow White's Adventures	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	3 min	71
Stitch Encounter	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	90
Goofy's Paint 'n' Play House	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	90
Mark Twain Riverboat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	90
Tom Sawyer Island Rafts	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	90
Donald's Boat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	90
Chip 'n Dale's Treehouse	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	90
Omnibus	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	90
The Enchanted Tiki Room: Stitch Presents “Aloha E Komo Mai!”	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	1 min	67
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Mediterranean Harbor)	Tokyo DisneySea	100%	4 min	16
Jumpin' Jellyfish	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	4 min	90
The Magic Lamp Theater	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	2 min	90
DisneySea Transit Steamer Line (Lost River Delta)	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	2 min	77
Sindbad's Storybook Voyage	Tokyo DisneySea	99%	3 min	90
Country Bear Theater	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	90
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	90
Westernland Shootin' Gallery	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	83
Alice's Tea Party	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	85
Mickey's PhilharMagic	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	90
Minnie's House	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	90
“it’s a small world with Groot”	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	73
The Whirlpool	Tokyo DisneySea	98%	4 min	90
DisneySea Electric Railway (American Waterfront)	Tokyo DisneySea	98%	4 min	90
Caravan Carousel	Tokyo DisneySea	98%	4 min	90
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Tokyo Disneyland	98%	5 min	90
Western River Railroad	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	4 min	69
Pirates of the Caribbean	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	3 min	90
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	3 min	90
Turtle Talk	Tokyo DisneySea	96%	4 min	90
Castle Carrousel	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	4 min	68
Cinderella's Fairy Tale Hall	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	3 min	74
Lost River Delta (Miguel: from 1:30 p.m.)	Tokyo DisneySea	95%	3 min	19
Peter Pan's Flight	Tokyo Disneyland	94%	5 min	90
Scuttle's Scooters	Tokyo DisneySea	93%	5 min	85
Jasmine's Flying Carpets	Tokyo DisneySea	89%	5 min	76
Blowfish Balloon Race	Tokyo DisneySea	88%	5 min	90
Jungle Cruise: Wildlife Expeditions	Tokyo Disneyland	88%	6 min	90
Gadget's Go Coaster	Tokyo Disneyland	88%	6 min	90
Fairy Tinker Bell's Busy Buggies	Tokyo DisneySea	86%	6 min	90
Flounder's Flying Fish Coaster	Tokyo DisneySea	85%	6 min	75
Nemo & Friends SeaRider	Tokyo DisneySea	84%	5 min	90
Lost River Delta (Miguel: until 1:00 p.m.)	Tokyo DisneySea	78%	8 min	18
20,000 Leagues Under the Sea	Tokyo DisneySea	74%	7 min	90
Beaver Brothers Explorer Canoes	Tokyo Disneyland	74%	8 min	31
Venetian Gondolas	Tokyo DisneySea	67%	9 min	89
Peter Pan's Never Land Adventure	Tokyo DisneySea	54%	13 min	90
Haunted Mansion	Tokyo Disneyland	52%	14 min	48
Rapunzel's Lantern Festival	Tokyo DisneySea	50%	14 min	84
Aquatopia	Tokyo DisneySea	48%	14 min	58
Big Thunder Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	47%	14 min	90
Raging Spirits	Tokyo DisneySea	46%	17 min	90
Pooh's Hunny Hunt	Tokyo Disneyland	46%	13 min	48
Enchanted Tale of Beauty and the Beast	Tokyo Disneyland	40%	18 min	90
Monsters, Inc. Ride & Go Seek!	Tokyo Disneyland	38%	17 min	77
The Happy Ride with Baymax	Tokyo Disneyland	37%	16 min	75
Anna and Elsa's Frozen Journey	Tokyo DisneySea	36%	21 min	90
Soaring: Fantastic Flight	Tokyo DisneySea	33%	23 min	90
Splash Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	33%	18 min	90
Toy Story Mania!	Tokyo DisneySea	31%	23 min	90
Tower of Terror	Tokyo DisneySea	31%	24 min	71
Journey to the Center of the Earth	Tokyo DisneySea	24%	26 min	90

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Tokyo Disney Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.