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How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Paris Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

50%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
16 min
Average Error
44
Days Analyzed
991
Ride Predictions Made
Disneyland Paris
Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Paris
50%
15 min avg error
Walt Disney Studios Park
50%
16 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 44 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride Park Accuracy Avg Error Samples
Blanche-Neige et les Sept Nains® Disneyland Paris 100% 3 min 8
Pirates of the Caribbean Disneyland Paris 100% 4 min 17
Phantom Manor Disneyland Paris 100% 3 min 17
Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque Disneyland Paris 100% 2 min 19
Le Carrousel de Lancelot Disneyland Paris 100% 2 min 16
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue* Disneyland Paris 100% 3 min 19
"it's a small world" Disneyland Paris 100% 3 min 18
Mad Hatter's Tea Cups Disneyland Paris 100% 2 min 17
Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 17
Alice's Curious Labyrinth Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 16
La Cabane des Robinson Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 19
Main Street Vehicles Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 40
Les Mystères du Nautilus Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 17
Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing Disneyland Paris 95% 4 min 19
Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop Walt Disney Studios Park 95% 5 min 19
Raiponce Tangled Spin Walt Disney Studios Park 95% 5 min 43
Slinky® Dog Zigzag Spin Walt Disney Studios Park 92% 5 min 25
Orbitron® Disneyland Paris 88% 6 min 17
Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril Disneyland Paris 88% 4 min 17
Les Tapis Volants - Flying Carpets Over Agrabah® Walt Disney Studios Park 83% 4 min 23
RC Racer Walt Disney Studios Park 82% 9 min 22
Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot Disneyland Paris 71% 8 min 14
Cars Quatre Roues Rallye Walt Disney Studios Park 69% 7 min 35
Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station Disneyland Paris 67% 9 min 15
Les Voyages de Pinocchio Disneyland Paris 61% 9 min 28
Cars ROAD TRIP Walt Disney Studios Park 56% 12 min 18
Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain Disneyland Paris 45% 15 min 38
Crush's Coaster Walt Disney Studios Park 45% 16 min 42
Avengers Assemble: Flight Force Walt Disney Studios Park 44% 11 min 39
The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror Walt Disney Studios Park 40% 21 min 42
Autopia, presented by Avis Disneyland Paris 39% 15 min 18
Frozen Ever After Walt Disney Studios Park 39% 20 min 41
Spider-Man W.E.B. Adventure Walt Disney Studios Park 39% 21 min 41
Dumbo the Flying Elephant Disneyland Paris 38% 17 min 37
Peter Pan's Flight Disneyland Paris 35% 22 min 40
Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast Disneyland Paris 34% 22 min 41
Big Thunder Mountain Disneyland Paris 24% 26 min 34
Ratatouille : L’Aventure Totalement Toquée de Rémy​ Walt Disney Studios Park 21% 26 min 43

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.