How Accurate Are Our Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

83%
of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time
6 min
Average Error
3
Days Analyzed
99
Ride Predictions Made
Disneyland Paris
Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Paris
90%
5 min avg error
Walt Disney Studios Park
76%
7 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 3 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride Park Accuracy Avg Error Samples
Cars Quatre Roues Rallye Walt Disney Studios Park 100% 4 min 3
Cars ROAD TRIP Walt Disney Studios Park 100% 4 min 3
Les Tapis Volants - Flying Carpets Over Agrabah® Walt Disney Studios Park 100% 3 min 3
Slinky® Dog Zigzag Spin Walt Disney Studios Park 100% 2 min 3
Orbitron® Disneyland Paris 100% 7 min 3
Dumbo the Flying Elephant Disneyland Paris 100% 5 min 3
Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 3
Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station Disneyland Paris 100% 1 min 3
Les Voyages de Pinocchio Disneyland Paris 100% 4 min 3
Blanche-Neige et les Sept Nains® Disneyland Paris 100% 6 min 3
Pirates of the Caribbean Disneyland Paris 100% 7 min 3
Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot Disneyland Paris 100% 2 min 3
Phantom Manor Disneyland Paris 100% 6 min 3
"it's a small world" Disneyland Paris 100% 4 min 3
Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel Disneyland Paris 100% 3 min 3
Mad Hatter's Tea Cups Disneyland Paris 100% 2 min 3
La Cabane des Robinson Disneyland Paris 100% 0 min 3
Main Street Vehicles Disneyland Paris 100% 0 min 3
Les Mystères du Nautilus Disneyland Paris 100% 0 min 3
Alice's Curious Labyrinth Disneyland Paris 100% 0 min 3
Crush's Coaster Walt Disney Studios Park 67% 14 min 3
Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop Walt Disney Studios Park 67% 5 min 3
RC Racer Walt Disney Studios Park 67% 9 min 3
Avengers Assemble: Flight Force Walt Disney Studios Park 67% 9 min 3
Peter Pan's Flight Disneyland Paris 67% 7 min 3
Big Thunder Mountain Disneyland Paris 67% 7 min 3
Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast Disneyland Paris 67% 9 min 3
Autopia, presented by Avis Disneyland Paris 67% 7 min 3
Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain Disneyland Paris 67% 11 min 3
Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque Disneyland Paris 67% 5 min 3
Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril Disneyland Paris 67% 8 min 3
Spider-Man W.E.B. Adventure Walt Disney Studios Park 33% 11 min 3
The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror Walt Disney Studios Park 33% 17 min 3

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.