How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Paris Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 38 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiponce Tangled Spin | Walt Disney Studios Park | 100% | 7 min | 6 |
| Star Tours: The Adventures Continue* | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 4 min | 12 |
| Main Street Vehicles | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 0 min | 38 |
| Les Mystères du Nautilus | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 0 min | 13 |
| La Cabane des Robinson | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 0 min | 13 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 4 min | 13 |
| Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 3 min | 12 |
| Les Tapis Volants - Flying Carpets Over Agrabah® | Walt Disney Studios Park | 100% | 4 min | 13 |
| Cars ROAD TRIP | Walt Disney Studios Park | 100% | 4 min | 11 |
| Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 3 min | 11 |
| Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 3 min | 11 |
| Phantom Manor | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 4 min | 11 |
| Le Carrousel de Lancelot | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 1 min | 8 |
| Mad Hatter's Tea Cups | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 2 min | 11 |
| Alice's Curious Labyrinth | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 0 min | 7 |
| Blanche-Neige et les Sept Nains® | Disneyland Paris | 100% | 6 min | 3 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Paris | 92% | 6 min | 12 |
| Autopia, presented by Avis | Disneyland Paris | 91% | 4 min | 11 |
| Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing | Disneyland Paris | 91% | 2 min | 11 |
| Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque | Disneyland Paris | 86% | 6 min | 14 |
| Orbitron® | Disneyland Paris | 83% | 7 min | 12 |
| Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril | Disneyland Paris | 82% | 6 min | 11 |
| Cars Quatre Roues Rallye | Walt Disney Studios Park | 81% | 6 min | 16 |
| Slinky® Dog Zigzag Spin | Walt Disney Studios Park | 80% | 7 min | 35 |
| Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop | Walt Disney Studios Park | 77% | 9 min | 13 |
| Les Voyages de Pinocchio | Disneyland Paris | 73% | 8 min | 15 |
| RC Racer | Walt Disney Studios Park | 67% | 10 min | 12 |
| Avengers Assemble: Flight Force | Walt Disney Studios Park | 47% | 10 min | 38 |
| Crush's Coaster | Walt Disney Studios Park | 39% | 16 min | 38 |
| Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast | Disneyland Paris | 31% | 22 min | 32 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Paris | 26% | 20 min | 38 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Paris | 26% | 18 min | 38 |
| Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain | Disneyland Paris | 26% | 17 min | 35 |
| Spider-Man W.E.B. Adventure | Walt Disney Studios Park | 24% | 23 min | 37 |
| Big Thunder Mountain | Disneyland Paris | 24% | 25 min | 37 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror | Walt Disney Studios Park | 21% | 16 min | 38 |
| Frozen Ever After | Walt Disney Studios Park | 14% | 24 min | 7 |
| Ratatouille : L’Aventure Totalement Toquée de Rémy | Walt Disney Studios Park | 8% | 28 min | 36 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.