How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Paris Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

84%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

7 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

1858

Ride Predictions Made

Disneyland Paris

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Paris

84%

6 min avg error

Disney Adventure World

83%

7 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 61 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop	Disney Adventure World	100%	4 min	45
RC Racer	Disney Adventure World	100%	4 min	50
Les Tapis Volants - Flying Carpets Over Agrabah®	Disney Adventure World	100%	2 min	50
Cars Quatre Roues Rallye	Disney Adventure World	100%	2 min	50
Raiponce Tangled Spin	Disney Adventure World	100%	2 min	58
Les Voyages de Pinocchio	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	49
Blanche-Neige et les Sept Nains®	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	49
Le Carrousel de Lancelot	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	49
Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	51
"it's a small world"	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	50
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue*	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	49
Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	49
Alice's Curious Labyrinth	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	49
La Cabane des Robinson	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	51
Mad Hatter's Tea Cups	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	37
Main Street Vehicles	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	57
Les Mystères du Nautilus	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	49
Cars ROAD TRIP	Disney Adventure World	98%	3 min	50
Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing	Disneyland Paris	98%	3 min	49
Slinky® Dog Zigzag Spin	Disney Adventure World	96%	3 min	57
Orbitron®	Disneyland Paris	96%	4 min	49
Phantom Manor	Disneyland Paris	96%	4 min	49
Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril	Disneyland Paris	96%	3 min	49
Pirates of the Caribbean	Disneyland Paris	94%	4 min	49
Dumbo the Flying Elephant	Disneyland Paris	83%	6 min	54
Spider-Man W.E.B. Adventure	Disney Adventure World	82%	9 min	56
Avengers Assemble: Flight Force	Disney Adventure World	82%	6 min	55
Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot	Disneyland Paris	80%	7 min	5
Frozen Ever After	Disney Adventure World	79%	10 min	57
Autopia, presented by Avis	Disneyland Paris	76%	7 min	50
Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast	Disneyland Paris	76%	10 min	45
Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain	Disneyland Paris	74%	8 min	54
Big Thunder Mountain	Disneyland Paris	72%	11 min	57
Peter Pan's Flight	Disneyland Paris	71%	11 min	42
Disneyland Railroad Fantasyland Station	Disneyland Paris	68%	7 min	19
Ratatouille : L’Aventure Totalement Toquée de Rémy	Disney Adventure World	64%	11 min	58
Crush's Coaster	Disney Adventure World	55%	12 min	20
Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station	Disneyland Paris	50%	13 min	34
The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror	Disney Adventure World	47%	13 min	58

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.