How Accurate Are Our Magic Kingdom Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 56 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hall of Presidents | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 52 |
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Monsters Inc. Laugh Floor | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 56 |
| Mad Tea Party | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Country Bear Musical Jamboree | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 55 |
| Walt Disney's Enchanted Tiki Room | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 56 |
| The Magic Carpets of Aladdin | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 56 |
| Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Prince Charming Regal Carrousel | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 2 min | 56 |
| Swiss Family Treehouse | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 1 min | 56 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Main Street, U.S.A. | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 36 |
| Walt Disney World Railroad - Fantasyland | Magic Kingdom | 100% | 3 min | 36 |
| Tomorrowland Speedway | Magic Kingdom | 98% | 3 min | 56 |
| Enchanted Tales with Belle | Magic Kingdom | 96% | 4 min | 48 |
| Under the Sea - Journey of The Little Mermaid | Magic Kingdom | 96% | 4 min | 56 |
| "it's a small world" | Magic Kingdom | 96% | 4 min | 56 |
| Meet Cinderella and a Visiting Princess at Princess Fairytale Hall | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 5 min | 19 |
| Haunted Mansion | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 5 min | 56 |
| Astro Orbiter | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 3 min | 56 |
| The Barnstormer | Magic Kingdom | 95% | 4 min | 56 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Magic Kingdom | 89% | 5 min | 55 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Magic Kingdom | 82% | 6 min | 56 |
| Buzz Lightyear's Space Ranger Spin | Magic Kingdom | 80% | 6 min | 56 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Magic Kingdom | 77% | 7 min | 56 |
| Seven Dwarfs Mine Train | Magic Kingdom | 68% | 8 min | 56 |
| Jungle Cruise | Magic Kingdom | 66% | 8 min | 56 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Magic Kingdom | 64% | 8 min | 56 |
| Space Mountain | Magic Kingdom | 61% | 10 min | 56 |
| TRON Lightcycle / Run | Magic Kingdom | 57% | 12 min | 56 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Magic Kingdom | 57% | 10 min | 56 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.