We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stitch Encounter | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 2 min | 15 |
| “Once Upon a Time” Adventure | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 4 min | 15 |
| Become Iron Man | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 2 min | 15 |
| Selfie Spot with Spider Man | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 0 min | 15 |
| Shipwreck Shore | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 0 min | 15 |
| Alice in Wonderland Maze | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 0 min | 15 |
| Siren's Revenge | Shanghai Disneyland | 100% | 0 min | 15 |
| Slinky Dog Spin | Shanghai Disneyland | 93% | 4 min | 15 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Shanghai Disneyland | 87% | 6 min | 15 |
| Fantasia Carousel | Shanghai Disneyland | 87% | 3 min | 15 |
| Hunny Pot Spin | Shanghai Disneyland | 87% | 5 min | 15 |
| Buzz Lightyear Planet Rescue | Shanghai Disneyland | 80% | 7 min | 15 |
| Woody’s Roundup | Shanghai Disneyland | 73% | 8 min | 15 |
| Explorer Canoes | Shanghai Disneyland | 73% | 9 min | 15 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Shanghai Disneyland | 67% | 11 min | 15 |
| Jet Packs | Shanghai Disneyland | 67% | 8 min | 15 |
| Challenge Trails at Camp Discovery | Shanghai Disneyland | 64% | 7 min | 11 |
| Peter Pan’s Flight | Shanghai Disneyland | 60% | 10 min | 15 |
| Voyage to the Crystal Grotto | Shanghai Disneyland | 60% | 8 min | 15 |
| TRON Lightcycle Power Run – Presented by Chevrolet | Shanghai Disneyland | 33% | 18 min | 15 |
| Rex’s Racer | Shanghai Disneyland | 33% | 11 min | 15 |
| Roaring Rapids | Shanghai Disneyland | 33% | 23 min | 15 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean Battle for the Sunken Treasure | Shanghai Disneyland | 33% | 20 min | 15 |
| Seven Dwarfs Mine Train | Shanghai Disneyland | 27% | 21 min | 15 |
| Soaring Over the Horizon | Shanghai Disneyland | 27% | 23 min | 15 |
| Zootopia: Hot Pursuit | Shanghai Disneyland | 7% | 31 min | 15 |
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Shanghai Disney Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.