How Accurate Are Our EPCOT Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

86%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

5 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

1362

Ride Predictions Made

EPCOT

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

EPCOT

86%

5 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 89 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Turtle Talk With Crush	EPCOT	100%	2 min	89
Mission: SPACE	EPCOT	100%	2 min	89
Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360	EPCOT	100%	2 min	84
Beauty and the Beast Sing-Along	EPCOT	100%	3 min	54
Reflections of China	EPCOT	100%	2 min	78
Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros	EPCOT	100%	2 min	89
Impressions de France	EPCOT	98%	3 min	81
Living with the Land	EPCOT	98%	4 min	89
Journey Into Imagination With Figment	EPCOT	98%	4 min	89
Spaceship Earth	EPCOT	94%	5 min	89
The Seas with Nemo & Friends	EPCOT	94%	4 min	89
Soarin' Around the World	EPCOT	73%	8 min	71
Remy's Ratatouille Adventure	EPCOT	67%	9 min	88
Frozen Ever After	EPCOT	61%	10 min	89
Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind	EPCOT	58%	12 min	89
Soarin' Across America	EPCOT	53%	13 min	17
Test Track	EPCOT	47%	13 min	88

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.