How Accurate Are Our EPCOT Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

80%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

7 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

970

Ride Predictions Made

EPCOT

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

EPCOT

80%

7 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 69 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Impressions de France	EPCOT	100%	3 min	22
Turtle Talk With Crush	EPCOT	100%	2 min	68
Canada Far and Wide in Circle-Vision 360	EPCOT	100%	2 min	67
Reflections of China	EPCOT	100%	2 min	65
Gran Fiesta Tour Starring The Three Caballeros	EPCOT	100%	2 min	69
Mission: SPACE	EPCOT	94%	3 min	69
Living with the Land	EPCOT	91%	6 min	69
Journey Into Imagination With Figment	EPCOT	91%	5 min	68
The Seas with Nemo & Friends	EPCOT	86%	6 min	69
Spaceship Earth	EPCOT	80%	6 min	69
Soarin' Across America	EPCOT	78%	7 min	9
Soarin' Around the World	EPCOT	62%	11 min	52
Remy's Ratatouille Adventure	EPCOT	57%	13 min	68
Test Track	EPCOT	54%	15 min	69
Frozen Ever After	EPCOT	50%	13 min	68
Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind	EPCOT	49%	17 min	69

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.