How Accurate Are Our Hollywood Studios Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 73 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacation Fun - An Original Animated Short with Mickey & Minnie | Hollywood Studios | 100% | 1 min | 50 |
| Star Tours – The Adventures Continue | Hollywood Studios | 99% | 2 min | 73 |
| Alien Swirling Saucers | Hollywood Studios | 73% | 7 min | 73 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Hollywood Studios | 67% | 10 min | 72 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror™ | Hollywood Studios | 64% | 9 min | 55 |
| Toy Story Mania! | Hollywood Studios | 62% | 10 min | 73 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Hollywood Studios | 58% | 11 min | 73 |
| Rock 'n' Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith | Hollywood Studios | 56% | 12 min | 55 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Hollywood Studios | 45% | 16 min | 73 |
| Rock ’n’ Roller Coaster Starring The Muppets | Hollywood Studios | 44% | 20 min | 18 |
| The Twilight Zone™ Tower of Terror | Hollywood Studios | 44% | 16 min | 18 |
| Slinky Dog Dash | Hollywood Studios | 42% | 16 min | 72 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Walt Disney World theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.