How Accurate Are Our Tokyo Disneyland Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

78%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

9 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

2658

Ride Predictions Made

Tokyo Disneyland

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Tokyo Disneyland

78%

9 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 89 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Country Bear Theater	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	3 min	89
The Enchanted Tiki Room: Stitch Presents “Aloha E Komo Mai!”	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Mark Twain Riverboat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	59
Omnibus	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	2 min	89
Chip 'n Dale's Treehouse	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	69
Tom Sawyer Island Rafts	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	89
Donald's Boat	Tokyo Disneyland	100%	0 min	69
Stitch Encounter	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	89
Mickey's PhilharMagic	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	2 min	89
Goofy's Paint 'n' Play House	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	89
Alice's Tea Party	Tokyo Disneyland	99%	3 min	89
Pirates of the Caribbean	Tokyo Disneyland	98%	4 min	51
Cinderella's Fairy Tale Hall	Tokyo Disneyland	98%	3 min	89
Westernland Shootin' Gallery	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	3 min	89
Minnie's House	Tokyo Disneyland	97%	2 min	89
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Tokyo Disneyland	96%	4 min	71
“it’s a small world with Groot”	Tokyo Disneyland	94%	4 min	69
Castle Carrousel	Tokyo Disneyland	91%	5 min	89
Western River Railroad	Tokyo Disneyland	90%	5 min	89
Snow White's Adventures	Tokyo Disneyland	88%	6 min	89
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue	Tokyo Disneyland	87%	5 min	89
Beaver Brothers Explorer Canoes	Tokyo Disneyland	77%	7 min	71
Jungle Cruise: Wildlife Expeditions	Tokyo Disneyland	73%	8 min	89
Gadget's Go Coaster	Tokyo Disneyland	72%	8 min	69
Peter Pan's Flight	Tokyo Disneyland	68%	8 min	56
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Tokyo Disneyland	65%	9 min	89
Haunted Mansion	Tokyo Disneyland	56%	12 min	89
Big Thunder Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	34%	21 min	64
Splash Mountain	Tokyo Disneyland	27%	30 min	89
The Happy Ride with Baymax	Tokyo Disneyland	19%	31 min	89
Enchanted Tale of Beauty and the Beast	Tokyo Disneyland	17%	38 min	89
Monsters, Inc. Ride & Go Seek!	Tokyo Disneyland	13%	28 min	71
Pooh's Hunny Hunt	Tokyo Disneyland	13%	28 min	70

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Tokyo Disney Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.