How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Park Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

85%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

5 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

1979

Ride Predictions Made

Disneyland Park

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Park

85%

5 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 61 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Storybook Land Canal Boats	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	61
The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	61
Pinocchio's Daring Journey	Disneyland Park	100%	3 min	61
Mark Twain Riverboat	Disneyland Park	100%	1 min	58
Casey Jr. Circus Train	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	61
King Arthur Carrousel	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	61
Disneyland Railroad	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	60
Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island	Disneyland Park	100%	0 min	23
Mad Tea Party	Disneyland Park	100%	2 min	40
Mr. Toad's Wild Ride	Disneyland Park	98%	3 min	61
Alice in Wonderland	Disneyland Park	97%	4 min	61
Snow White's Enchanted Wish	Disneyland Park	97%	4 min	61
Peter Pan's Flight	Disneyland Park	95%	5 min	61
Autopia	Disneyland Park	93%	5 min	61
"it's a small world"	Disneyland Park	93%	4 min	61
Disneyland Monorail	Disneyland Park	93%	4 min	60
Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster	Disneyland Park	92%	5 min	61
Jungle Cruise	Disneyland Park	89%	5 min	61
Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes	Disneyland Park	88%	4 min	8
Dumbo the Flying Elephant	Disneyland Park	87%	6 min	61
Astro Orbitor	Disneyland Park	87%	5 min	61
Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage	Disneyland Park	87%	5 min	61
Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin	Disneyland Park	80%	7 min	61
Pirates of the Caribbean	Disneyland Park	80%	7 min	61
Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters	Disneyland Park	80%	7 min	61
Star Tours - The Adventures Continue	Disneyland Park	75%	7 min	61
Big Thunder Mountain Railroad	Disneyland Park	74%	7 min	61
Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run	Disneyland Park	74%	8 min	61
Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway	Disneyland Park	72%	7 min	61
Space Mountain	Disneyland Park	66%	9 min	61
Haunted Mansion	Disneyland Park	61%	11 min	49
Matterhorn Bobsleds	Disneyland Park	58%	10 min	57
Indiana Jones™ Adventure	Disneyland Park	53%	10 min	38
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance	Disneyland Park	49%	12 min	61
Tiana's Bayou Adventure	Disneyland Park	44%	12 min	61

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.