How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Park Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 62 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Storybook Land Canal Boats | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| Pinocchio's Daring Journey | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 62 |
| Mark Twain Riverboat | Disneyland Park | 100% | 1 min | 59 |
| Casey Jr. Circus Train | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 62 |
| King Arthur Carrousel | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 62 |
| Disneyland Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 61 |
| Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island | Disneyland Park | 100% | 0 min | 23 |
| Mad Tea Party | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 41 |
| Mr. Toad's Wild Ride | Disneyland Park | 98% | 3 min | 62 |
| Alice in Wonderland | Disneyland Park | 97% | 4 min | 62 |
| Snow White's Enchanted Wish | Disneyland Park | 97% | 4 min | 62 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Park | 95% | 5 min | 62 |
| Autopia | Disneyland Park | 94% | 5 min | 62 |
| Disneyland Monorail | Disneyland Park | 93% | 4 min | 61 |
| Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster | Disneyland Park | 92% | 5 min | 62 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Park | 92% | 4 min | 62 |
| Jungle Cruise | Disneyland Park | 89% | 5 min | 62 |
| Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes | Disneyland Park | 88% | 4 min | 8 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Park | 87% | 6 min | 62 |
| Astro Orbitor | Disneyland Park | 87% | 5 min | 62 |
| Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage | Disneyland Park | 87% | 5 min | 62 |
| Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin | Disneyland Park | 81% | 7 min | 62 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 62 |
| Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 62 |
| Star Tours - The Adventures Continue | Disneyland Park | 76% | 7 min | 62 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Disneyland Park | 74% | 7 min | 62 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Disneyland Park | 73% | 7 min | 62 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Disneyland Park | 73% | 8 min | 62 |
| Space Mountain | Disneyland Park | 66% | 9 min | 62 |
| Haunted Mansion | Disneyland Park | 62% | 11 min | 50 |
| Matterhorn Bobsleds | Disneyland Park | 59% | 10 min | 58 |
| Indiana Jones™ Adventure | Disneyland Park | 51% | 10 min | 39 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Disneyland Park | 50% | 12 min | 62 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Disneyland Park | 45% | 12 min | 62 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.