How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Park Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 80 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Twain Riverboat | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 77 |
| Storybook Land Canal Boats | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 80 |
| Casey Jr. Circus Train | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 80 |
| Pinocchio's Daring Journey | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 80 |
| Disneyland Railroad | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 80 |
| The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 80 |
| Mad Tea Party | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 80 |
| King Arthur Carrousel | Disneyland Park | 100% | 2 min | 69 |
| Pirate's Lair on Tom Sawyer Island | Disneyland Park | 100% | 0 min | 33 |
| Sailing Ship Columbia | Disneyland Park | 100% | 3 min | 3 |
| Mr. Toad's Wild Ride | Disneyland Park | 99% | 3 min | 80 |
| Alice in Wonderland | Disneyland Park | 98% | 4 min | 80 |
| Snow White's Enchanted Wish | Disneyland Park | 98% | 4 min | 80 |
| Davy Crockett's Explorer Canoes | Disneyland Park | 97% | 4 min | 34 |
| Disneyland Monorail | Disneyland Park | 92% | 4 min | 79 |
| Chip 'n' Dale's GADGETcoaster | Disneyland Park | 92% | 5 min | 80 |
| "it's a small world" | Disneyland Park | 92% | 4 min | 80 |
| Autopia | Disneyland Park | 91% | 5 min | 80 |
| Peter Pan's Flight | Disneyland Park | 90% | 5 min | 80 |
| Finding Nemo Submarine Voyage | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 80 |
| Astro Orbitor | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 80 |
| Jungle Cruise | Disneyland Park | 81% | 6 min | 80 |
| Buzz Lightyear Astro Blasters | Disneyland Park | 77% | 7 min | 71 |
| Dumbo the Flying Elephant | Disneyland Park | 76% | 7 min | 80 |
| Star Tours - The Adventures Continue | Disneyland Park | 76% | 7 min | 80 |
| Pirates of the Caribbean | Disneyland Park | 74% | 7 min | 57 |
| Haunted Mansion | Disneyland Park | 72% | 8 min | 68 |
| Roger Rabbit's Car Toon Spin | Disneyland Park | 71% | 8 min | 80 |
| Mickey & Minnie's Runaway Railway | Disneyland Park | 71% | 7 min | 80 |
| Big Thunder Mountain Railroad | Disneyland Park | 69% | 7 min | 80 |
| Space Mountain | Disneyland Park | 66% | 9 min | 79 |
| Matterhorn Bobsleds | Disneyland Park | 61% | 10 min | 76 |
| Indiana Jones™ Adventure | Disneyland Park | 57% | 10 min | 80 |
| Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run | Disneyland Park | 57% | 9 min | 80 |
| Tiana's Bayou Adventure | Disneyland Park | 46% | 13 min | 80 |
| Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance | Disneyland Park | 39% | 16 min | 80 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.