How Accurate Are Our Disney California Adventure Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 72 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey's PhilharMagic | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 69 |
| Jumpin' Jellyfish | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 2 min | 72 |
| Silly Symphony Swings | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 48 |
| Jessie's Critter Carousel | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 72 |
| Games of Pixar Pier | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 1 min | 57 |
| Redwood Creek Challenge Trail | Disney California Adventure | 100% | 0 min | 71 |
| Inside Out Emotional Whirlwind | Disney California Adventure | 97% | 3 min | 72 |
| Golden Zephyr | Disney California Adventure | 96% | 2 min | 72 |
| Mater's Junkyard Jamboree | Disney California Adventure | 93% | 4 min | 72 |
| Luigi's Rollickin' Roadsters | Disney California Adventure | 92% | 5 min | 72 |
| The Little Mermaid - Ariel's Undersea Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 92% | 5 min | 72 |
| Toy Story Midway Mania! | Disney California Adventure | 90% | 5 min | 72 |
| Villains Grove at Oogie Boogie Bash | Disney California Adventure | 89% | 4 min | 9 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round - Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 5 min | 72 |
| Pixar Pal-A-Round – Non-Swinging | Disney California Adventure | 88% | 5 min | 72 |
| Monsters, Inc. Mike & Sulley to the Rescue! | Disney California Adventure | 86% | 6 min | 72 |
| Goofy's Sky School | Disney California Adventure | 86% | 6 min | 72 |
| WEB SLINGERS: A Spider-Man Adventure | Disney California Adventure | 83% | 7 min | 72 |
| Soarin' Around the World | Disney California Adventure | 79% | 7 min | 70 |
| Grizzly River Run | Disney California Adventure | 75% | 8 min | 72 |
| Incredicoaster | Disney California Adventure | 74% | 8 min | 72 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Mission: BREAKOUT! | Disney California Adventure | 60% | 10 min | 72 |
| Guardians of the Galaxy - Monsters After Dark | Disney California Adventure | 53% | 13 min | 19 |
| Radiator Springs Racers | Disney California Adventure | 51% | 12 min | 72 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Resort theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.