How Accurate Are Our Walt Disney Studios Park Predictions?
We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.
Accuracy by Park
Accuracy Trend (Last 43 Days)
Per-Ride Accuracy
Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.
| Ride | Park | Accuracy | Avg Error | Samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toy Soldiers Parachute Drop | Walt Disney Studios Park | 95% | 5 min | 19 |
| Raiponce Tangled Spin | Walt Disney Studios Park | 95% | 5 min | 43 |
| Slinky® Dog Zigzag Spin | Walt Disney Studios Park | 92% | 5 min | 25 |
| Les Tapis Volants - Flying Carpets Over Agrabah® | Walt Disney Studios Park | 83% | 4 min | 23 |
| RC Racer | Walt Disney Studios Park | 82% | 9 min | 22 |
| Cars Quatre Roues Rallye | Walt Disney Studios Park | 69% | 7 min | 35 |
| Cars ROAD TRIP | Walt Disney Studios Park | 56% | 12 min | 18 |
| Crush's Coaster | Walt Disney Studios Park | 45% | 16 min | 42 |
| Avengers Assemble: Flight Force | Walt Disney Studios Park | 44% | 11 min | 39 |
| The Twilight Zone Tower of Terror | Walt Disney Studios Park | 40% | 21 min | 42 |
| Frozen Ever After | Walt Disney Studios Park | 39% | 20 min | 41 |
| Spider-Man W.E.B. Adventure | Walt Disney Studios Park | 39% | 21 min | 41 |
| Ratatouille : L’Aventure Totalement Toquée de Rémy | Walt Disney Studios Park | 21% | 26 min | 43 |
Our Methodology
Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.
Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.
Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.
Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.
Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.