How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Paris Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

84%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

6 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

1194

Ride Predictions Made

Disneyland Paris

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Paris

84%

6 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 57 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Les Voyages de Pinocchio	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	49
Blanche-Neige et les Sept Nains®	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	48
Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	51
Le Carrousel de Lancelot	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	49
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue*	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	49
"it's a small world"	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	50
Mad Hatter's Tea Cups	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	37
Alice's Curious Labyrinth	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	49
La Cabane des Robinson	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	51
Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	49
Main Street Vehicles	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	57
Les Mystères du Nautilus	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	49
Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing	Disneyland Paris	98%	3 min	49
Orbitron®	Disneyland Paris	96%	4 min	49
Phantom Manor	Disneyland Paris	96%	4 min	49
Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril	Disneyland Paris	96%	3 min	49
Pirates of the Caribbean	Disneyland Paris	94%	4 min	49
Dumbo the Flying Elephant	Disneyland Paris	83%	6 min	54
Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast	Disneyland Paris	76%	10 min	46
Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain	Disneyland Paris	74%	8 min	54
Autopia, presented by Avis	Disneyland Paris	74%	7 min	50
Big Thunder Mountain	Disneyland Paris	72%	11 min	57
Peter Pan's Flight	Disneyland Paris	69%	11 min	42
Disneyland Railroad Fantasyland Station	Disneyland Paris	67%	7 min	18
Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot	Disneyland Paris	67%	8 min	6
Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station	Disneyland Paris	53%	13 min	34

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.