How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Paris Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

41%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

17 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

681

Ride Predictions Made

Disneyland Paris

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Paris

41%

17 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 61 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Main Street Vehicles	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	60
Phantom Manor	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	17
"it's a small world"	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	19
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue*	Disneyland Paris	100%	4 min	23
Le Carrousel de Lancelot	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	8
Mad Hatter's Tea Cups	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	17
Alice's Curious Labyrinth	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	12
La Cabane des Robinson	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	19
Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	18
Les Mystères du Nautilus	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	19
Le Carrousel de Lancelot	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	9
Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing	Disneyland Paris	95%	3 min	19
Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque	Disneyland Paris	95%	4 min	20
Pirates of the Caribbean	Disneyland Paris	94%	4 min	18
Orbitron®	Disneyland Paris	89%	6 min	18
Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot	Disneyland Paris	82%	6 min	17
Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril	Disneyland Paris	82%	6 min	17
Autopia, presented by Avis	Disneyland Paris	76%	9 min	17
Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station	Disneyland Paris	76%	7 min	17
Les Voyages de Pinocchio	Disneyland Paris	53%	11 min	32
Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast	Disneyland Paris	29%	23 min	55
Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain	Disneyland Paris	29%	17 min	56
Dumbo the Flying Elephant	Disneyland Paris	27%	19 min	60
Peter Pan's Flight	Disneyland Paris	26%	22 min	61
Big Thunder Mountain	Disneyland Paris	15%	28 min	53

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.