How Accurate Are Our Disneyland Paris Predictions?

We believe in transparency. Here's how our wait time predictions compare to actual posted times, updated daily.

87%

of predictions within 10 minutes of actual wait time

5 min

Average Error

Days Analyzed

1255

Ride Predictions Made

Disneyland Paris

Most Accurate Park

Accuracy by Park

Disneyland Paris

87%

5 min avg error

Accuracy Trend (Last 58 Days)

Per-Ride Accuracy

Rides ranked by prediction accuracy. Higher is better.

Ride	Park	Accuracy	Avg Error	Samples
Les Voyages de Pinocchio	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	52
Blanche-Neige et les Sept Nains®	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	52
Casey Jr. – le Petit Train du Cirque	Disneyland Paris	100%	3 min	54
Le Carrousel de Lancelot	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	52
Star Tours: The Adventures Continue*	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	52
"it's a small world"	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	53
Le Pays des Contes de Fées, presented by Vittel	Disneyland Paris	100%	2 min	52
Mad Hatter's Tea Cups	Disneyland Paris	100%	1 min	40
Alice's Curious Labyrinth	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	52
La Cabane des Robinson	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	54
Main Street Vehicles	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	57
Les Mystères du Nautilus	Disneyland Paris	100%	0 min	52
Indiana Jones™ and the Temple of Peril	Disneyland Paris	96%	3 min	52
Pirates of the Caribbean	Disneyland Paris	94%	4 min	52
Thunder Mesa Riverboat Landing	Disneyland Paris	94%	3 min	52
Orbitron®	Disneyland Paris	92%	4 min	52
Phantom Manor	Disneyland Paris	92%	4 min	52
Dumbo the Flying Elephant	Disneyland Paris	87%	6 min	55
Disneyland Railroad Frontierland Depot	Disneyland Paris	80%	7 min	5
Autopia, presented by Avis	Disneyland Paris	79%	6 min	52
Buzz Lightyear Laser Blast	Disneyland Paris	78%	9 min	46
Star Wars Hyperspace Mountain	Disneyland Paris	78%	7 min	55
Disneyland Railroad Fantasyland Station	Disneyland Paris	73%	6 min	22
Peter Pan's Flight	Disneyland Paris	72%	10 min	43
Big Thunder Mountain	Disneyland Paris	71%	10 min	58
Disneyland Railroad Main Street Station	Disneyland Paris	54%	12 min	37

Our Methodology

Our prediction engine uses a 3-layer weighted model trained on real wait time data collected every 5 minutes from all Disneyland Paris theme parks.

Layer 1 — Day-of-Week Averages: Recency-weighted averages from the same day of week over the past 60 days. Recent data is weighted more heavily using exponential decay.

Layer 2 — Momentum: A 7-day vs 30-day trailing trend multiplier that detects whether crowds are rising or falling.

Layer 3 — Seasonal Calendar: Overlays for Spring Break, summer, holidays, and special events that historically affect crowd levels.

Accuracy is measured as the percentage of individual ride predictions that fall within 10 minutes of the actual posted wait time, calculated at end of day.